Presidential Election 2012: Is History Repeating Itself?

I came across an intriguing article in the Huffington Post written by Al Checchi that really got me thinking about the upcoming 2012 Presidential Election. There are some striking similarities to the election in the 1980’s in which Ronald Reagan became our president and the pattern seems to continue some 30 years later. Is there nothing new under the sun?

Now think back with me to 1980, when the country was in a similar economic recession that we are facing today. President Carter’s approval rates were declining and many Democrats scoffed at the thought of extreme right winger and former actor Ronald Reagan becoming the Republican candidate for office. Many people were discontent with their financial situation, the U.S’s declining global influence and the expansion of government. Sound familiar?

Checchi writes that, “Seventy-five percent of the public feels that we are on the wrong track… As in 1980, Republican primary voters appear poised to cast aside another eminently qualified centrist and do the arguably more unthinkable and nominate for the presidency the former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich. Again, they appear to seek the more radical alternative…Democrats who are gleeful at the prospect of a race against the controversial Gingrich would do well to remember their similar elation over the Reagan nomination. Not only did the ‘amiable dunce’ and ‘right wing’ Reagan win a smashing electoral college victory (489 to 49) but he led his party to an unimagined gain of twelve seats and reversed fifty years of Democratic control of the Senate. Equally noteworthy, he went on to win an even greater 525-13 re-election victory and ushered in an era of significant political realignment.”

I think this is going to be an exciting year for politics and so far the race is far too close to predict who our next president will be. I’m surprised at the balance much of the media is providing; it seems that every day I find equal articles stating why President Obama will win or why Newt Gingrich is going to be the new president, or others close in the polls like Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and Michele Bachmann. Mr. Obama is clearly campaigning with all his might, but Gingrich is gaining speed and political fundraising savvy at a surprising rate.

All I know is that on November 6, 2012, I’ll be glued to my TV and laptop like the rest of the nation.

Will the State of the Union Garner Obama More Support?

I think the State of the Union address was pretty much on every basic cable channel last night. With an upcoming election and a low approval rate, did President Obama rally the masses to get one step closer to winning a second term? Will his speech to the nation further his political fundraising efforts?

I can’t help but wonder at the timing of Obama’s dissertation just one day after the Republican debates. It’s obvious that the incumbent usually has the advantage over new nominees, but the back biting and mudslinging of the political party that is trying to offset the reigning elected majority never seems to bode well. While Obama was able to present a polished speech with calm reserve and his usual charisma, his opponents had to battle it out the night before with indignation, flustered comebacks and on the defensive.

Does this seem fair? (And is anything “fair” in love, war, and politics?) However, I digress…
As the polarization of the two parties seems to increase, it appeared that Obama’s main strategy to gain support was to appeal to the middle class by addressing the issues concerning taxation of millionaires (a not-so-subtle jab at the recent Mitt Romney controversy) and government involvement to aid homeowners whose mortgages are upside down. These are certainly appealing issues, but will this be the net that gathers more supporters to Obama’s team?

In the Chicago Tribune Peter Hart, Democratic pollster, commented that “Obama knows he has 44% of the electorate” to start with, and in a country as divided as the U.S., “44% is a big number. He’s decided “I’m going to keep those people on board, then we’ll go after everyone else.”

David Lauter of the Washington Bureau writes in the Chicago Tribune that, “Getting the rest of the way to a majority depends on persuading a handful of crucial voters in the middle who find themselves tugged in two directions. On the one hand, voters — including those who call themselves independents — hold a deeply skeptical view of government and its ability to help them. Fewer than one-third of voters have a positive view of the size and power of the federal government.

“At the same time, pollsters have found a sharp and rapid increase in the percentage of people who doubt the Republican idea that America has no class divisions. In 2009, a majority of both Republicans and independents said they saw little if any conflict between rich and poor, according to a survey by the Pew Research Center. Now, more than two-thirds of Americans, including those independent voters, say they think such conflicts are ‘strong’ or ‘very strong.’”

So basically Obama, Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul all are trying to win the favor of disillusioned voters. Fortunately there is still ten months ahead to turn this tide. Using social media fundraising tools and connecting with their supporters just may be the key to winning the election.

Does High Political Fundraising Dollars Translate into Approval Ratings?

With the 2012 presidential election just under ten months away, a current survey conducted by Fox News shows that it’s going to be one close race. So far President Obama is ahead in his political fundraising numbers, but does that translate into high approval ratings?

There are some surprising results presented in this survey involving telephone interviews with 906 randomly chosen registered voters. If Obama and Romney were to go head to head in the polls today, 46 percent of voters would back the incumbent and 45 percent would support Romney. Consider that there is a three percent margin for error, and it could be anyone’s game.

In an interesting twist, the report states that, “behind those numbers is a striking contrast: 74 percent of Obama backers say they are voting ‘for’ him rather than ‘against Romney’ (21 percent). Yet for Romney, his support is mainly anti-Obama. Fifty-eight percent of Romney voters say they would be voting ‘against Obama’ rather than ‘for Romney’ (33 percent).”

Not surprising is the dedication that voters have towards the political party that they are affiliated with. 88 percent of Democrats support Obama and 86 percent of Republicans support Romney. What I do find intriguing is that with other Republican contenders still in the race, Romney’s numbers are rather high. I know that these numbers are based on an Obama vs. Romney election, but it seems pretty clear that the Republican forerunner has a strong chance at grabbing the nomination for president.

Furthermore, even with drastically low approval numbers, Obama still has a fighting chance at a second term. The survey found that, “currently 45 percent of voters approve and 47 percent disapprove of the job President Obama is doing. That’s little changed from December when 44 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved… Meanwhile, about four voters in 10 are either ‘very happy’ (7 percent) or ‘satisfied’ (35 percent) with the Obama administration. More than a third is ‘disappointed’ (37 percent) and about one in five is ‘angry’ (19 percent). These views are mostly unchanged from the last time the question was asked in September 2011.”

So what can we learn from this survey? For non-profits and politicians alike, if you have a strong and faithful support team, the possibilities are endless at what you can achieve. Secondly, these numbers are too close to call at who will become the next leader of the nation. It has been said time and again that the battleground is on the internet, so hang on as we see some new strategies being implemented using social media fundraising.